In this episode of Noble6 Talks, Noble6 breaks down why holding onto your catalytic converters could cost you more than you think. Fresh off the IPMI Winter Conference, they bring urgent insights into the Palladium market, growing converter surplus, and what recyclers and sellers need to prepare for in 2025 and beyond.

Palladium Is Flatlining — and That’s a Red Flag

The team uses an eye-opening metaphor from Jacob Smith (Senior PGM Analyst at Metals Focus), who described Palladium’s current price behavior as a “sideways snake” — stuck in a trading channel between $900 and $1,000/oz. While that might feel stable, it’s also a sign of stagnation in a market with rising supply and shrinking demand.

Why the Surplus Is Growing — and Prices May Drop 20%

Here’s the kicker: we’re already in a Palladium surplus. But the next wave is coming. Ed and Rich estimate that an extra 300,000–400,000 ounces of Palladium per year could hit the market for the next 3–4 years.

That would push prices down another 10–20%, especially as older vehicles with high Palladium loadings finally enter the recycling stream.

5 Reasons We Haven’t Seen These Converters Yet

So, where are all the converters? The video outlines five key reasons they haven’t flooded the market — yet:

1. End-of-life vehicles sent straight to the shredder (converters lost)

2. Millions of deregistered cars are exported overseas, skipping U.S. recycling

3. Private salvage yards hoarding inventory, waiting for price rebounds

4. Auto repair shops and recyclers speculating, holding converters on shelves

5. Cars still on the road — people are driving them longer due to WFH and high interest rates

The biggest contributor? Cars simply haven’t aged out yet. With more people working from home and driving less, converters are staying fitted to vehicles that are lasting 15–20 years.

We’ve broken this down in more detail in our post on the catalytic converter recycling industry’s big changes.

1.6 Million Ounces Still on the Road

Noble6 estimates that over the last three years, 1.6 million ounces of Palladium have not been recycled. That metal is still out there, still attached to vehicles — but it’s coming. And when it does, it could crash converter prices even further.

What About Platinum and Rhodium?

While Palladium is oversupplied, Platinum has a more balanced outlook. It’s hovering between $900–$1,000/oz and has a slight upward bias due to tighter fundamentals.

Rhodium, on the other hand, has peaked near $5,000/oz, and is expected to remain flat unless new demand enters the market.

Are You Sitting on a Pile of Missed Profit?

If you’re in the converter trade, recycling, auto repair, or salvage, this is your wake-up call. Holding inventory in hopes of a “bounce-back” could leave you exposed as the surplus grows.

Remember: 70% of the metal loading in converters is Palladium — and the trendline is pointing down.

Know What Your Scrap Is Worth — Today

Don’t guess. Use our Converter Price Guide with thousands of part numbers to check your scrap value in real time.

• Keep your buyers honest

• Avoid selling too low

• Lock in profit while the market still allows it

What’s Your Next Move?

Are you still holding on — or are you adjusting your strategy? Drop a comment below and join the conversation.

Let us know:

• Are you seeing more converters trickle in?

• Is your yard stockpiling or selling?

• Do you agree with the 300–400k oz/year surplus prediction?

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