At the IPMI’s 50th Annual Conference, Ed and Rich sat down with Wilma Swarts, Director of PGM Research at Metals Focus, to discuss one of the biggest questions in the precious metals market: is platinum’s recent surge backed by real fundamentals, or has investor speculation pushed prices too far?

Platinum more than doubled during 2025, even though the market had already been running supply deficits for several years without seeing the same type of price response. According to Swarts, the answer is a combination of genuine physical tightness, shrinking above-ground inventories, and a major increase in investor interest.

Why Platinum Finally Broke Out

Platinum had been in deficit for several years, but prices remained relatively subdued. That started to change in the second quarter of 2025 when platinum moved through the $1,000-per-ounce level. By the fourth quarter, it was pushing toward $2,000, with the rally continuing into the first quarter of the following year.

Swarts says there is no question that the physical platinum market is tight. Above-ground stocks have been drawn down, while historically high lease rates provide another indication that available metal has become harder to source.

However, she believes the size of the price rally has also been heavily influenced by investors.

Is Investor Demand Driving the Platinum Boom?

According to Swarts, investor interest has played a significant role in platinum’s recent rerating.

One major development has been increased access to platinum trading in China through the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX). The new platform gives another group of investors access to the metal and creates a new price-discovery mechanism.

Swarts suggests the increased investment demand may have simply helped unlock a platinum price that was already justified by the underlying deficit.

For years, analysts had been pointing to platinum’s supply-demand fundamentals and questioning why prices were not higher. Increased investor participation may finally have been the catalyst that allowed those fundamentals to show up in the price.

Platinum’s Relationship With Gold

Platinum is unusual because it has both industrial and investment demand.

Swarts describes platinum as being “twice blessed” because it can benefit from industrial consumption while also behaving like an investment precious metal during periods of geopolitical or economic uncertainty.

Historically, platinum and gold have often been highly correlated, and platinum has even traded at a premium to gold during previous periods.

Today, Metals Focus considers the outlook for gold when developing its platinum price forecasts because investor sentiment toward the two metals can be closely connected.

Ruthenium and Iridium Are Becoming More Important

Another major theme in the Metals Focus PGM report is the growing importance of the so-called minor PGMs: ruthenium and iridium.

Metals Focus expanded its research to include these metals because their contribution to the overall PGM mining basket has become increasingly significant.

Swarts explains that roughly five years ago, ruthenium and iridium represented only around 2% to 5% of the PGM basket price. More recently, they have represented roughly 10%, and Metals Focus sees the possibility of that contribution becoming even larger over the longer term.

Ruthenium in particular has experienced significant price appreciation. Because it is a relatively thinly traded metal, its market can experience extreme highs and lows.

Why PGM Supply Cannot Quickly Respond to Higher Prices

Higher prices normally encourage producers to increase supply. Mining, however, does not work that quickly.

According to Swarts, bringing a significant new PGM mine into production can take approximately seven to nine years.

That creates a major limitation in the market. Even if platinum prices rise dramatically today, miners cannot simply increase production next month or next year.

Swarts also points to a broader shift in the mining industry toward greater financial discipline. Mining companies have increasingly emphasized capital allocation and profitability, which has limited investment in both new projects and sustaining existing production.

The result has been what Metals Focus describes as a structural decline in mine supply.

Are Any New Platinum Mines Coming Online?

There are potential PGM mining projects in development, but Swarts says many have been discussed for years without reaching meaningful production.

One project Metals Focus is relatively optimistic about is Platreef. Its first phase is ramping up, with additional development potentially helping offset some of the structural decline occurring elsewhere in the mining industry.

Even so, a single project does not eliminate the broader supply challenge facing the platinum market.

What Resource Nationalization Means for PGMs

Platinum group metals are increasingly being treated as strategic and critical resources.

South Africa considers platinum strategically important, while the United States has designated PGMs as critical minerals. Similar efforts are taking place in Europe through critical-minerals policies and regulations.

Swarts describes this trend as a form of resource nationalization, where countries attempt to increase domestic access to strategic metals, build stockpiles, and protect local industries.

That can have complicated effects on pricing.

Strategic stockpiles can improve security of supply and stabilize prices, but if prices are kept too low, mining companies lose the financial incentive needed to maintain or expand production.

That makes PGM policy a balancing act between affordability, availability, and investment in future supply.

What the Metals Focus Report Says About Electrification

The latest Metals Focus report also examines changing expectations around vehicle electrification.

The transition toward electric vehicles remains an important long-term issue for platinum group metals because the automotive industry is such a significant source of PGM demand.

However, Swarts points to some pullback in the pace of electrification, making the future mix of internal combustion, hybrid, and battery-electric vehicles increasingly important when forecasting platinum and other PGM demand.

What the Platinum Rally Means Going Forward

The platinum market is supported by real fundamentals: years of deficits, declining available inventories, tight physical supply, and limited ability for miners to quickly increase production.

But Swarts also believes investors have played an important role in the magnitude of the recent rally.

That means the platinum boom isn’t simply one thing. It reflects a combination of physical tightness and changing investor behavior.

For catalytic converter recyclers and others exposed to PGMs, understanding both sides of that equation matters. Industrial demand and mine supply remain fundamental, but investment flows can dramatically accelerate price movements when the underlying market is already tight.

The Future of the PGM Industry

Beyond market prices, Swarts also discussed her work as a founding member of Women in PGMs and its mentorship partnership with the IPMI.

The program has helped mentor approximately 150 young women in the industry with support from experienced professionals throughout the precious metals sector.

For Swarts, developing the next generation of talent is critical to the future of the PGM industry. The IPMI has now reached its 50th anniversary, and continued investment in young professionals, technical expertise, and industry knowledge will help carry the precious metals industry into its next chapter.

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